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Is Denver’s Housing Market Finally Cooling Off?

Market data from the month of September indicates the Mile High City’s red-hot housing market may be moving toward a place of balance.

| courtesy 5280 Magazine

It’s time for a reality check. With decreases in the number of homes sold and average home price, the Denver real-estate market experienced a slowdown in September 2017, according to the Denver Metro Association of Realtors’ October market report (of September data). Those moves, though small, may spur more dramatic shifts in the future.

Total sales of single-family homes and condos decreased by 21.58 percent between August and September 2017. Granted, Denver experiences a seasonal slowdown every autumn, but over the past decade, the average drop from August to September has been just 10.1 percent.

“Limited supply has always been an issue, but the big thing creeping into the market is affordability issues,” says Steve Danyliw, chairman of the Denver Metro Association of Realtors Market Trends Committee. “Higher prices and a limited supply are causing buyers to be more apprehensive.”The average price for a single-family home decreased by 0.52 percent in September to $429,597, but that average has increased by 8.84 percent from September 2016. “With these high ticket prices, we’ve seen more buyers fall out of deals over inspection issues,” Danyliw says. “Buyers are struggling to buy homes at these prices and they are shifting their behavior.”That means sellers can no longer put a house on the market on Friday and expect 10 offers by Monday. “Buyers are no longer responding to that feeding frenzy,” Danyliw says.

Even with the recent drop in the number of homes sold, the market is still ahead of 2016, as year-to-date closings are up 3.22 percent from last year. And, with active listings totaling 7,586 units (that’s single-family homes and condos), inventory is starting to creep back up—remember that all-time low in February 2017, when total available units dipped below the 4,000 mark?

Though it’s not yet a buyer’s market—Danyliw says it takes an inventory build-up of four months to shift the balance—with Denver home inventory now at 1.8 months for single-family homes, sellers are starting to face a reality check: Good homes will still sell, but at these high prices, better properties will sell faster.

The big takeaway for buyers? Though it’s still a seller’s market, the slowdown might give you some leverage when it comes to negotiating things like inspection items.

Despite the changes, Danyliw assures us that Denver is still an incredibly strong market. “It’s a hot market, but it’s not a scorching-hot market,” he says. “We’re just transitioning back to something closer to normalcy.

 

As temperatures drop, Denver’s housing market cools slightly

As temperatures drop, Denver’s housing market cools slightly

DENVER — Experts said Denver’s housing prices are down about 4 percent this fall, part of a seasonal market compression customary for this time of year.

Kelly Moye with the Colorado Association of REALTORS® said Denver’s housing market goes through a compression every fall. She said properties sell quickly from January through late June and then slow in July and August.

“July and August may as well be Christmastime around here, because it’s very slow,” said Moye.

As a result, Moye said sellers drop their prices to sell in the fall.

“When you see reduced prices, that’s where the statistic of the 4 percent decline comes from,” said Moye.

While the fall can be a great time for buyers to purchase homes, Moye said it does not mean this has turned into a buyers’ market.

To read the full article, please visit KDVR by clicking here.

Colorado Association of REALTORS

Wave of wealthy out-of-town buyers pushes up Boulder home prices

Wave of wealthy out-of-town buyers pushes up Boulder home prices

One of the most interesting developing trends in Boulder Valley real estate is the emergence of what I’m calling a “Dual Market.” This burgeoning dual market has lessons for both buyers and sellers, especially in the city of Boulder.

What is a Dual Market?

“How’s the market?” is a question familiar to most real estate agents. For the past several years, the reply was usually something like, “crazy,” “on fire,” “busy,” or something similar.  In truth, however, the answer should be tied to which market segment one is referring, as markets can vary based on housing type, location (even down to the sub-neighborhood level), quality of finish, etc. Some market segments are appreciating rapidly and are a strong seller’s market, while some are actually in the midst of a buyer’s market.

In the Boulder Valley, we are beginning to see the two largest residential market segments (in terms of price) act as two different market with two different sets of rules.

On one hand, we have what I’ll call the “Upper Market,” which I’m defining as homes priced at $1 million and above (which currently go up to $5,995,000).  You’ll note that I’m not calling this the “Luxury Market,” both because the average home in Boulder is currently over $1 million and because many of the homes in this segment would not fit the definition of “luxury.” On the other hand is the “Lower Market,” which is comprised of any homes below $1 million. While the Boulder Valley is generally described as being in a seller’s market, the Upper Market shows strong signs of being a buyer’s market. 

Months of Inventory. As of the close of the first quarter, there were 11.3 months’ of inventory in the Upper Market, meaning if no more homes came on the market, it would take over 11 months to sell the stock of homes currently on the market. To provide context, a balanced market has about six months’ of inventory, so this indicator weighs heavily toward a buyer’s market.  In Boulder County, there are currently 118 single family homes available on the market at $1,000,000 or above, of which 105 are located in the City of Boulder. The Lower Market, by contrast, had an average of 2 months’ of inventory, which is indicative of a very strong seller’s market. Currently, there are 343 single family homes available in the Lower Market, but only 51 of which are located in the City of Boulder.

Days on the Market.

The average days on the market from listing to closing for homes in the Upper Market is 103 days. This is a full month longer than the average for all homes in Boulder County, including those in the Lower Market. The longer homes sit on the market, the more it is a buyer’s market, so this indicator also shows that the Upper Market is more on the buyer’s market side.

Sales Price vs. Listing Price Ratio (SP/LP).

The higher the sales price when compared with the listing price, the stronger a seller’s market.  For example, the SP/LP ratio in our hottest market has been over 100 percent  for some time, meaning that the average sale price of a home was above its listing price.  In the Upper Market in the first quarter, the average SP/LP was 97.5 percent, which may sound impressive.  However, the average SP/LP for all homes in Boulder County was 99.2 percent, which is substantially higher when one considers the size of the transactions involved.  Here again, the Upper Market appears to be a buyer’s market, while the Lower Market appears to be a seller’s market.

Percent under contract.

One final indicator we’ll consider is the percent of homes actively on the market that are already under contract to be sold. The higher the percentage of homes under contract, the stronger the seller’s market and vice versa. In the Upper Market, 25 percent of all available homes were under contract in the first quarter.  By comparison, 50 percent of all homes in the whole market, including the Lower Market, were under contract.

The data from the first quarter of 2017 show that our residential market has bifurcated into a Dual Market, where the Upper Market is currently in a buyer’s market and the Lower Market is still in a seller’s market. What this means for home buyers is that if you’re looking in the Lower Market, you still have to be prepared to aggressively compete with multiple offers and be ready to act quickly.  If you are a buyer in the Upper Market, it means you likely have a little more time to consider your options and are more likely to be able to buy a home for less than its asking price.  However, even in the Upper Market, unique, well-priced and desirable homes are still likely to move quickly, especially when they are located in a prime location, have inspiring views, etc. The bottom line is that buyers should be aware of what market they are participating in and adjust their strategy accordingly.

Originally Printed by: Bizwest

http://bizwest.com/2017/06/16/dual-real-estate-market-emerges-boulder-valley/

Dual real estate market emerges in Boulder Valley

Dual real estate market emerges in Boulder Valley

One of the most interesting developing trends in Boulder Valley real estate is the emergence of what I’m calling a “Dual Market.” This burgeoning dual market has lessons for both buyers and sellers, especially in the city of Boulder.

What is a Dual Market?

“How’s the market?” is a question familiar to most real estate agents. For the past several years, the reply was usually something like, “crazy,” “on fire,” “busy,” or something similar.  In truth, however, the answer should be tied to which market segment one is referring, as markets can vary based on housing type, location (even down to the sub-neighborhood level), quality of finish, etc. Some market segments are appreciating rapidly and are a strong seller’s market, while some are actually in the midst of a buyer’s market.

In the Boulder Valley, we are beginning to see the two largest residential market segments (in terms of price) act as two different market with two different sets of rules.

On one hand, we have what I’ll call the “Upper Market,” which I’m defining as homes priced at $1 million and above (which currently go up to $5,995,000).  You’ll note that I’m not calling this the “Luxury Market,” both because the average home in Boulder is currently over $1 million and because many of the homes in this segment would not fit the definition of “luxury.” On the other hand is the “Lower Market,” which is comprised of any homes below $1 million. While the Boulder Valley is generally described as being in a seller’s market, the Upper Market shows strong signs of being a buyer’s market. 

Months of Inventory. As of the close of the first quarter, there were 11.3 months’ of inventory in the Upper Market, meaning if no more homes came on the market, it would take over 11 months to sell the stock of homes currently on the market. To provide context, a balanced market has about six months’ of inventory, so this indicator weighs heavily toward a buyer’s market.  In Boulder County, there are currently 118 single family homes available on the market at $1,000,000 or above, of which 105 are located in the City of Boulder. The Lower Market, by contrast, had an average of 2 months’ of inventory, which is indicative of a very strong seller’s market. Currently, there are 343 single family homes available in the Lower Market, but only 51 of which are located in the City of Boulder.

Days on the Market.

The average days on the market from listing to closing for homes in the Upper Market is 103 days. This is a full month longer than the average for all homes in Boulder County, including those in the Lower Market. The longer homes sit on the market, the more it is a buyer’s market, so this indicator also shows that the Upper Market is more on the buyer’s market side.

Sales Price vs. Listing Price Ratio (SP/LP).

The higher the sales price when compared with the listing price, the stronger a seller’s market.  For example, the SP/LP ratio in our hottest market has been over 100 percent  for some time, meaning that the average sale price of a home was above its listing price.  In the Upper Market in the first quarter, the average SP/LP was 97.5 percent, which may sound impressive.  However, the average SP/LP for all homes in Boulder County was 99.2 percent, which is substantially higher when one considers the size of the transactions involved.  Here again, the Upper Market appears to be a buyer’s market, while the Lower Market appears to be a seller’s market.

Percent under contract.

One final indicator we’ll consider is the percent of homes actively on the market that are already under contract to be sold. The higher the percentage of homes under contract, the stronger the seller’s market and vice versa. In the Upper Market, 25 percent of all available homes were under contract in the first quarter.  By comparison, 50 percent of all homes in the whole market, including the Lower Market, were under contract.

The data from the first quarter of 2017 show that our residential market has bifurcated into a Dual Market, where the Upper Market is currently in a buyer’s market and the Lower Market is still in a seller’s market. What this means for home buyers is that if you’re looking in the Lower Market, you still have to be prepared to aggressively compete with multiple offers and be ready to act quickly.  If you are a buyer in the Upper Market, it means you likely have a little more time to consider your options and are more likely to be able to buy a home for less than its asking price.  However, even in the Upper Market, unique, well-priced and desirable homes are still likely to move quickly, especially when they are located in a prime location, have inspiring views, etc. The bottom line is that buyers should be aware of what market they are participating in and adjust their strategy accordingly.

Originally Printed by: Bizwest

http://bizwest.com/2017/06/16/dual-real-estate-market-emerges-boulder-valley/

HFF ANNOUNCES $13.5M FINANCING FOR BOUTIQUE RESORT IN VAIL, COLORADO

HFF ANNOUNCES $13.5M FINANCING FOR BOUTIQUE RESORT IN VAIL, COLORADO

LOS ANGELES, CA – October 3, 2018 – Holliday Fenoglio Fowler, L.P. (HFF) announces $13.5 million in financing for The Sebastian – Vail, a full-service boutique hotel and private residence club located within Vail Village in Vail, Colorado.

The HFF team worked on behalf of the private owner to place the 10-year, fixed-rate loan with JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association.  Additionally, HFF will service the loan, proceeds of which will be used for additional capital improvements.  The resort is operated and managed by Timbers Resorts.

Completed in 2007, The Sebastian – Vail underwent an extensive $1.2 million property improvement project that was completed in 2016, and all guest rooms were updated in 2014.  The hotel, which was named the No. 1 Resort in Colorado by U.S. News & World Report in 2017, features 84 luxury hotel rooms, 16 executive suites, seven residential suites and a 36-residence Private Residence Club.  Amenities include ski-in/ski-out locker storage, a full-service spa, 8,000 square feet of meeting and event space, an outdoor pool area with four hot tubs, owners’ wine cellar and private lounge and fitness center, as well as an alpine-inspired, fine-dining restaurant and two bars.  The property also boasts a large art collection from world-renowned artists, including Manuel Felguèrez, Leonora Carrington and Victor Chaca.  Located at 16 Vail Road, the hotel is in the heart of Vail Village, the focal point for all dining, retail and cultural activities in the Vail Valley.

The HFF debt placement team representing the borrower included senior managing directors Paul Brindley and Eric Tupler.

“The conservative loan request combined with the location in Vail Village created significant interest by lenders,” Tupler said.  “The borrower and Timbers have spent significant capital to keep this asset as one of the top luxury products in the market.”

About Timbers Resorts
Timbers Resorts is the developer and operator of a collection of properties in over 16 of the world’s most diverse high-end destinations.  The Timbers Collection includes boutique private resorts, hotels and residence clubs in some of the world’s most sought-after ski, golf, leisure and beach locations.  Since 1999, Timbers Resorts has been committed to being authentic, unique and respectful of the destination, focusing on family and experiences, and never compromising with regard to quality and service.  Owners at properties in the Timbers Collection are granted an ownership experience with expanded benefits through a host of travel and lifestyle partners such as Sentient Jet, Hertz, BMW, Priority Pass and many more, as well as access to the Timbers Reciprocity Program and the ability to trade vacation time with other destinations in the portfolio. Current Timbers Collection properties can be found in Aspen, Beaver Creek, Cabo San Lucas, Jupiter, Kaua`i, Kiawah Island, Maui, Napa, Scottsdale, Snowmass, Sonoma, Southern California, Steamboat, Tuscany U.S. Virgin Islands and Vail.  For more information, please visit timbersresorts.com and facebook.com/timbersresorts.

About HFF
HFF and its affiliates operate out of 26 offices and are a leading provider of commercial real estate and capital markets services to the global commercial real estate industry.  HFF, together with its affiliates, offers clients a fully integrated capital markets platform including debt placement, investment advisory, equity placement, funds marketing, M&A and corporate advisory, loan sales and loan servicing.  HFF, HFF Real Estate Limited, HFF Securities L.P. and HFF Securities Limited are owned by HFF, Inc. (NYSE: HF).  For more information, please visit hfflp.com or follow HFF on Twitter @HFF.

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Kate Struzenberg

Residential & Commercial Real Estate, CCIM

"I am so grateful we were able to team up with Kate."

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Commercial, REsidential, Investment, Management